The latest developments in the conflict in Syria show continuously changing and complex dynamics. Since the start of the crisis in 2011, the conflict has involved a wide range of regional and international interests, making it one of the worst conflicts of the 21st century. In 2023, the political situation in Syria reflects uncertainty. Bashar al-Assad’s government, with support from Russia and Iran, managed to recover most of the territory lost since the start of the war. However, some areas, especially in the north, remain under the control of Kurdish SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) rebels and forces. This region is at the center of attention because it involves tensions between Türkiye and the Kurds. The dispute in northern Syria became more complicated after Türkiye threatened to launch a military operation against SDF positions. Türkiye considers the SDF to be an offshoot of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party), which it considers a terrorist group. This has raised concerns about further escalation of the conflict, especially with US military support for the SDF in the fight against ISIS. On the other hand, the humanitarian situation in Syria continues to worsen. According to a UN report, millions of civilians are still trapped in very dire conditions. Access to humanitarian aid is limited, and many areas still experience food and medicine shortages. Many people are fleeing, with millions of Syrian refugees seeking asylum in neighboring countries such as Türkiye, Lebanon and Jordan. Syria’s economy is also in decline. International sanctions, coupled with infrastructure damage from the war, make economic recovery a nearly impossible challenge. Inflation soared, while unemployment rose sharply. Various international agencies note that the livelihoods of Syrians are under threat, with many of them struggling to afford basic needs. In a political context, reconciliation efforts between the Assad regime and various opposition groups appear to be stagnant. Several international meetings, including the Astana and Geneva meetings, have failed to produce significant progress. Meanwhile, the role of big countries, such as Russia, which is trying to strengthen Assad’s position, and the US, which is focused on limiting Iran’s influence, increasingly obscures a long-term political solution. Developments in Syria also have an impact on international relations. Many countries are starting to consider re-establishing diplomatic relations with the Assad regime, as the defeat of ISIS remains relatively stable. Despite this, many countries remain alert to the possibility of a recurrence of atrocities in the future. Meanwhile, the issue of protecting minority groups such as Yazidis and Christians in Syria continues to be in the spotlight. Fears of attacks from extremist groups in recently liberated areas remain high. This has an impact on efforts to repatriate refugees and rehabilitate communities affected by conflict. All these factors indicate that despite progress from its military perspective, Syria remains at a critical point. Stability, peace and reconstruction will depend heavily on the international community’s involvement and commitment to resolving the fundamental problems stemming from this conflict. Recent developments show that Syria’s future remains highly uncertain and full of challenges.
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